灰色关联分析在生猪代宰风险评估中的应用
目的 应用灰色关联分析法对生猪代宰过程进行风险评估。方法 以企业规模、车间面积、年屠宰量等为静态风险因素, 布局设施、过程管理、人员资质、管理制度建立及运行等为动态风险因素, 应用灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析方法对四川、重庆10个生猪代宰场进行风险评价, 并与百分制评定法进行对比。 结果 采用2种方法对四川、重庆10个生猪代宰场风险评价, 其中8号屠宰场百分制评定为79分, 属于Ⅲ级(中等)范围; 而采用灰色关联评判关联度为0.4241, 关联序排名第5, 关联度所在级别比百分制评定低一个等级, 属于Ⅱ级(较低)范围。另对16个风险因素关联度大小排序结果显示: 静态风险因素r1(车间面积)和r2(年屠宰量)为第1与第2名次; 动态风险因素r3~r16中, r7(进场)排在首位, 与生猪屠宰需通过静养观察期, 这一个关键因素相一致, 其次是r3(屠宰资质)和r8(待宰)。对于r10(肉品检验)、r14(管理制度)和r11(无害化处理)等因素关联度次序亦符合屠宰场的生产实际。结论 灰色关联评判法可提高风险防范能力和预警能力, 有利于实现对不同风险等级的生猪屠宰企业进行分类管理, 为监管部门基于风险分析的政策制定和监管创新提供支持。
Objective To evaluate the risk of pig slaughtering by using grey relational analysis. Methods The grey relational analysis method in grey system theory was applied to assess pig slaughtering using static risk factors such as enterprise size, workshop area and annual slaughter amount, as well as dynamic risk factors such as layout facilities, process management, personnel qualification, management system establishment and operation, etc. The grey relational analysis method in grey system theory was carried out on 10 pig slaughterhouses in Chongqing and Sichuan, and compared with centesimal system evaluation method. Results Using 2 methods to assess 10 pigs slaughterhouse in Sichuan and Chongqing, the evaluation of 8th slaughterhouse was 79 points by using centesimal system , belonged to the scope of Ⅲ level (medium). Associated with grey correlation evaluation correlation degree was 0.4241, ranked fifth, the degree of correlation was one grade lower than centesimal system, belonged to the scope of Ⅱ level(lower). The ranking results of the correlation degree of 16 risk factors show that the static risk factors r1 (workshop area) and r2 (annual slaughter volume) rank 1st and 2nd. Among the dynamic risk factors r3-r16, r7 (entering) ranks the first, which is consistent with the fact that the slaughter of live pigs needs to pass the observation period of repose, which is a key factor, followed by r3 (slaughtering qualification) and r8 (to be slaughtered). For r10 (meat inspection), r14 (management system) and r11 (harmless treatment), the order of correlation degree also conforms to the production practice of slaughterhouses. Conclusion Grey correlation evaluation method can improve risk prevention ability and early warning ability, and it is conducive to the classified management of pig slaughtering enterprises with different risk levels. The grey correlation evaluation method will support regulatory policy-making and regulatory innovation based on risk analysis.
标题：灰色关联分析在生猪代宰风险评估中的应用
英文标题：Application of grey correlation analysis in the risk assessment of pig slaughtering process
作者：
赵宁 江苏省农业科学院兽医研究所;江苏雨润肉类产业集团有限公司
陆昌华 江苏省农业科学院兽医研究所
谭业平 江苏省农业科学院兽医研究所
胡肄农 江苏省农业科学院兽医研究所
肖颖 重庆市动物疫病预防控制中心
郁达威 江苏省农业科学院兽医研究所
中文关键词:灰色系统,灰色关联分析,生猪代宰,风险评估,肉品安全,
英文关键词:grey system,grey correlation analysis,pig slaughtering,risk assessment,meat safety,
发表日期：2018-05-28
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