考虑风光出力不确定性及相关性的配电网规划方法
摘要：新能源在电力系统中的渗透率日益提高，大大增加了电网中的不确定因素，对配电网的规划运行和控制提出了更高的要求。配电网规划是电力系统安全稳定运行的重要基石，传统配电网规划中各参数都已确定，缺乏对不确定因素的适应性。因此，提出一种基于概率潮流的配电网规划方法，首先对配电网中的不确定因素定量建模，建立源荷出力模型，其次将风速、太阳辐射与用电负荷之间的相关性用秩相关系数矩阵表征，建立计及相关性的半不变量概率潮流计算方法，最后构建以规划成本最小为目标函数，以潮流平衡、馈线容量、节点电压、网架辐射型结构为约束条件的配电网规划模型，并通过改进惯性参数与引入变异操作对粒子群算法进行改进，利用改进后的算法求解规划模型。以33节点系统为例进行仿真，结果验证了该方法能够有效降低网损，减少网络规划费用。
Abstract:The growing penetration of new energy sources in the power system has significantly increases the uncertainties in the grid, asking for higher requirements for the planning, operation and control of the distribution network. The distribution network planning is an important cornerstone for the safe and stable operation of the power system. The traditional distribution network planning, in which all parameters are determined in advance, lacks adaptability to uncertainties. In view of this, we proposed a method for distribution network planning based on probabilistic power flow analysis. The source-load output model was firstly established according to the quantitative modeling of uncertainties in the distribution network by using our method. Secondly, we utilized the rank correlation coefficient matrix to characterize the correlation between wind speed, light intensity and load, and developed a semi-invariant probabilistic power flow calculation method with correlation taken into account. Finally, with the objective function of reducing the comprehensive cost, we constructed a distribution network planning model with the constraints of feeder capacity, node voltage, tidal balance, and radial structure of the grid. And the particle swarm algorithm was improved by optimization of inertia parameters and incorporation of variational operations. The improved algorithm was employed to solve the planning model. Simulations were conducted taking a 33-node system as an instance, and the results confirms the effectiveness of our method in reducing network loss and network planning costs.
标题：考虑风光出力不确定性及相关性的配电网规划方法
英文标题：Distribution Network Planning Method Considering Uncertainty and Correlation of Wind-photovoltaic Power Output
作者：张颖, 艾欣,
关键词：配电网规划, 不确定性, 相关性, 概率潮流, 粒子群算法,
发表日期：2024-04-10
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