面向汽车电动化替代的公路交通碳排放影响因素分析
摘要：为促进公路交通碳减排、尽早实现碳达峰，首先对公路交通碳排放进行测算，在公路交通所消耗的汽油和燃油产生碳排放的基础上，还考虑到电动汽车充电量中的煤电产生的碳排放。然后，采用STIRPAT模型对公路交通碳排放影响因素进行分析，选取公路交通GDP、汽车保有量、充电量的煤电占比、公路货运周转量以及公路客运周转量这6个因素来研究公路交通碳排放变化，并对这6个影响因子的公路交通碳排放贡献率进行测算分析。最后，通过设定基准情景和集中减排情景，预测我国公路交通未来的碳排放量，为实现公路交通碳达峰提供发展思路。结果表明要在大力推广电动汽车的前提下，使电动汽车占比变化率在2019—2030年间为37.91%，2030年以后为1.70%，并提高清洁能源比例，使电动汽车充电量的煤电占比达到−23%的变化率变化时，对于电动汽车充电碳排放而言，更加具有清洁低碳意义。同时也要保持公路客运周转量每年变化−4.14%的下降趋势以及维持公路货运量每年变化4.84%的速度缓慢增长，我国公路交通将有望在2030年前实现碳达峰。
Abstract:To promote carbon emission reduction of road transportation and realize carbon peak as soon as possible, firstly the carbon emission of road transportation was measured and calculated. In addition to the carbon emissions from gasoline and fuel oil consumed by road traffic, the carbon emissions from coal electricity in charge volume were also taken into account. Then, STIRPAT model was used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions from road transportation. Six factors, namely road transport GDP, car ownership, coal power ratio of charging capacity, road freight turnover and road passenger turnover, were selected to study the change of road transport carbon emission, and the contribution rate of road transport carbon emission of these six influencing factors was calculated and analyzed. Finally, by setting the baseline scenario and the concentrated emission reduction scenario, the future carbon emissions of road transportation in China were predicted, which provided development ideas for achieving the carbon peak of road transportation. The results show that on the premise of vigorously promoting electric vehicles, the change rate of the proportion of electric vehicles should be 37.91% from 2019 to 2030, and 1.70% after 2030. In addition, the ratio of clean energy should be increased so that the ratio of coal power in EV charging can reach -23%, which is more clean and low-carbon in terms of EV charging carbon emissions. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain the downward trend of 4.14% of highway passenger turnover and the slow growth of 4.84% of highway freight volume. China's highway traffic will be expected to achieve carbon peak before 2030.
标题：面向汽车电动化替代的公路交通碳排放影响因素分析
英文标题：Analysis on Influencing Factors of Road Traffic Carbon Emission Oriented to Vehicle Electrification Substitution
作者：奚悦, 马同涛, 刘明光, 王文, 加鹤萍, 许传博, 杨烨, 刘敦楠,
关键词：公路交通, 碳排放, 电动汽车碳减排, 影响因素分析, 情景预测,
发表日期：2023-12-04
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