基于改进狮群算法–模糊评判的变电站台风易损性评估
摘要：为解决台风灾害对沿海地区变电站破坏严重，易造成故障的问题，提出一种基于改进狮群算法–模糊评判的变电站台风易损性评估方法。首先基于致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体脆弱性建立易损性评估体系；在传统模糊综合评判方法中引入组合云模型，构建模糊综合评判隶属度函数，并基于改进狮群算法（lion swarm algorithm，LSA）优化聚类中心，得到隶属度函数阈值划分规则；随后，基于主客观组合权重，通过权重和改进的模糊综合评判法计算灾害风险指数，并基于历史数据计算灾害风险概率，由灾害风险概率和风险指数得到变电站台风灾害易损性评估结果；最终根据评估结果采取不同针对性的措施。算例结果表明，文中提出的变电站台风易损性评估方法提高了评估准确率，达到了防灾减灾效果。
Abstract:To solve the problem of severe damage and easy failure of substations in coastal areas caused by typhoon disasters, a substation typhoon vulnerability assessment method based on improved lion swarm algorithm and fuzzy evaluation was proposed. Firstly, based on the danger of disaster causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment and the vulnerability of disaster bearing body a vulnerability assessment system was established. Secondly, a combined cloud model was led into the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation membership function, and based on the improved lion swarm algorithm (abbr. LSA) the clustering center was optimized to obtain the threshold partition rules of membership function. Thirdly, based on the subjective and objective combination weights, the disaster risk index was calculated by weight and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and based on the historical data the disaster risk probability was calculated. The vulnerability assessment results of substation typhoon disaster were obtained from the disaster risk probability and risk index. Finally, according to the evaluation results different targeted measures were adopted. Results of computing example show that using the proposed assessment method of substation typhoon vulnerability the assessment accuracy is improved and the effect of disaster prevention and reduction is achieved.
标题：基于改进狮群算法–模糊评判的变电站台风易损性评估
英文标题：Typhoon Vulnerability Assessment of Substation Based on Improved Lion Swarm Algorithm and Fuzzy Evaluation
作者：席禹, 于力, 程凌森, 陈波, 蒋文辉, 刘红升,
关键词：台风灾害, 模糊综合评判, 云模型, 狮群算法, 聚类分析, 组合权重, 易损性评估,
发表日期：2023-09-26
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