基于准稳态数据的电力系统等效惯量评估方法
摘要：风电、光伏等可再生能源规模化接入导致电力系统惯量降低、频率失稳风险增加，亟需对等效惯量进行在线评估。现有的惯量评估方法大多基于大扰动场景下的频率变化率，难以满足准稳态场景下的等效惯量评估需求。首先，针对常态化惯量评估问题，分析电力系统惯量响应的机理，推导准稳态运行条件下等效惯量的表达式。然后，基于系统辨识理论，构建受控自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable，ARMAX），利用赤池信息准则（Akaike information criterion，AIC）确定模型阶次，并运用最小二乘方法估计系统等效惯量。最后，在WSCC 9节点系统中对所提方法的有效性进行了验证，表明所提方法具有较高的辨识精度，能够适应不同的负荷波动形式。
Abstract:The large-scale grid-connection of such renewable energy as wind power and photovoltaic (abbr. PV) power leads to the decreasing of power system inertial and the increasing of frequency instability risk, there is an urgent need for online assessment of equivalent inertia. However, most existing inertia estimation methods are based on the frequency change rate under large disturbance scenario so it is hard for them to meet the needs of equivalent inertia estimation under quasi-steady operating state scenario. For this reason, firstly, in allusion to the normal inertial estimation the mechanism of power system inertia response was analyzed, and the expression for the equivalent inertia under quasi-steady state operating condition was derived. Secondly, based on the theory of system identification a controlled autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable (abbr. ARMAX) model was constructed and by use of Akaike information criterion (abbr. AIC) the model order was determined, and by use of the method of least minimum square the equivalent inertia of system was estimated. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by WSCC 9-bus system. Verification results show that the proposed method possesses higher identification precision and can adapt to different load fluctuation forms.
标题：基于准稳态数据的电力系统等效惯量评估方法
英文标题：Estimation Method for Power System Equivalent Inertia Based on Quasi-steady-state Data
作者：程定一, 马欢, 秦昊, 曹永吉, 杨冬, 张冰,
关键词：等效惯量, 准稳态, 系统辨识, ARMAX<sup> </sup>, 赤池信息准则,
发表日期：2023-08-10
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