基于动态能耗模型与用户心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测
摘要：针对城市中家用电动汽车与电动出租车出行能耗变化与充电决策问题，考虑实时交通路网、气温以及用户心理，提出一种基于动态能耗模型与用户心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测模型。首先，根据出行链理论建立家用电动汽车出行的时空转移模型，根据出行订单数据与源点-终点分析法对出租车出行规律进行模拟；其次，根据锂电池充放电实验数据分析不同温度对电池容量的影响，分析电动汽车在行驶过程中产生的耗电量并建立精细化的空调能耗模型和里程能耗模型。在此基础上引入锚定效应分析用户心理对充电决策的影响，建立考虑用户主观意愿的充电决策模型；最后，以成都三环内的实际路网为例，运用蒙特卡洛法对不同场景下的电动汽车充电需求进行时空预测，仿真结果验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。
Abstract:In allusion to the energy consumption variation and charging decision during the trip of household electric vehicles (abbr. EV) and electric taxi in the city, considering realtime traffic network, air temperature and user psychology an EV charging load prediction model based on dynamic energy consumption model and user psychology was proposed. Firstly, according to the trip chain theory a spatio-temporal transfer model of household EV travel was established, and on the basis of trip order data and origin-destination analysis method the trip rule of electric taxi was simulated. Secondly, according to the charging-discharging experimental data of lithium battery the influence of different temperature on battery capacity was analyzed, and the power consumption occurred in the EV driving was analyzed and a refined air conditioning energy consumption model and mileage energy consumption model were constructed. On this basis the anchoring effect was led in to analyze the impact of user psychology on charging decision, thus a charging decision model, in which the user’s subjective wishes was taken into account, was established. Finally, taking actual road network within the third ring road of Chengdu as example, the Monte Carlo method was utilized to conduct the spatio-temporal prediction of EV’s charging demand under different scenarios. Simulation results show that the proposed models and method are effective.
标题：基于动态能耗模型与用户心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测
英文标题：Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction Based on Dynamic Energy Consumption Model and User Psychology
作者：张美霞, 吴子敬, 杨秀,
关键词：电动汽车, 出行链, 电池能耗, 锚定效应, 负荷预测,
发表日期：2022-12-07
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