一种基于多元物理场耦合的变压器故障演化评估模型
摘要：变压器作为电力系统的重要设备，其故障预防和寿命管理对提升电力系统运行的可靠性具有重要意义。为实现变压器设备故障状态的高效评估，文中从变压器故障机理的关联性和复杂性特征出发，建立了基于多元物理场耦合与模糊数理论的变压器故障演化评估模型。首先，基于变压器故障的关联性特征，建立变压器故障演化网络图。其次，考虑到变压器故障机理复杂以及监测数据有限，采用COMSOL软件进行多元物理场耦合仿真；同时结合模糊数理论，建立变压器故障演化概率计算模型。最后，引入风险熵表征变压器故障演化的不确定性，提出变压器故障演化路径最大概率表达式，并将其转化为线性规划问题，进而得到不同初始风险因素下变压器最大概率故障演化路径。算例分析表明：模型计算结果能够反映变压器故障统计数据特征，可为变压器的状态评估提供参考。
Abstract:As important equipment in power system, the trouble prevention and life management of transformer are of important significance for improving the reliability of power system operation. To implement the high-efficiency assessment on the fault state of transformer equipment, starting from the correlation and complexity characteristics of the transformer fault mechanism, a transformer fault state assessment model based on the coupling of polynary physical fields and fuzzy number theory was established. Firstly, based on the correlation characteristics of transformer faults, a network diagram of transformer fault evolution was established. Secondary, considering the complexity of transformer failure mechanism and limited monitoring data, the COMSOL software was utilized to carry out the coupling simulation of polynary physical field. Thirdly, combining with fuzzy number theory, an evolutionary probability calculation model for transformer faults was built. Finally, led in the risk entropy to characterize the uncertainty in transformer fault evolution, and the maximum probability expression of transformer fault evolution path was proposed and translated into a linear programming problem, and then the maximum probability fault evolution path of transformer under different initial risk factors was obtained. Results of analysis on computing example show that the calculation results by the built model can effectively reflect the feature of transformer fault statistic data, thus it can provide important reference for the state assessment of transformer.
标题：一种基于多元物理场耦合的变压器故障演化评估模型
英文标题：A Transformer Fault Evolution Evaluation Model Based on Coupling of Polynary Physical Fields
作者：陶力军, 王子欣, 雷琪, 陈凯, 杨炜晨, 苗世洪,
关键词：模糊数理论, 多元物理场, 故障演化, 状态评估, COMSOL,
发表日期：2022-10-10
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