基于风险价值的电动汽车充电桩效益风险评估
摘要：电动汽车市场渗透率的不断提高推动了充电桩的大规模建设。目前关于充电桩建设的研究主要集中在优化布局和经济性分析上，关注其效益风险评估的较少。首先基于全生命周期理论，建立充电桩的投资效益模型，然后针对充电量这一不确定性因素，采用蒙特卡洛法计算投资回报率（return on investment，ROI）的概率分布，再通过Cornish-Fisher展开式求取一定置信水平下ROI分布的近似分位数，得到充电桩项目的风险价值，通过风险价值量化充电桩项目的投资效益风险。最后通过选取常用的6.6 kW慢充充电桩和350 kW快充充电桩进行算例分析，结果表明：所提方法能够适用于电动汽车充电桩的效益风险评估，辅助电网公司在投资充电桩项目时做出合理决策。
Abstract:The increasing market penetration of electric vehicle (EV) promotes the large-scale construction of charging piles. At present the research on the construction of charging piles was concentrated on its optimized layout and economic analysis, and the attention was seldom paid to its risk-profit evaluation. To fill the research gap in this respect, firstly, based on the theory of full life-cycle an investment benefit model of the charging pile was established. Secondly, in allusion to the uncertainty factor of the charging quantity, the probability distribution of the return on investment (ROI) was calculated by Monte Carlo method. Thirdly, by means of Cornish-Fisher expansion the approximate quantile of ROI distribution under a certain level of confidence was solved to obtain the value at risk of the charging pile project, and the investment benefit risk of charging pile project was quantified by the value at risk. Finally, the frequently-used 66kW slow charging pile and 350kW quick charging pile were selected to perform the analysis on calculation examples. Analysis results show that the proposed method is suitable for the benefit risk assessment of EV charging pile, thus it could be utilized to assist the power grid company making reasonable decision-making during the invest in charging pile project.
标题：基于风险价值的电动汽车充电桩效益风险评估
英文标题：Benefit and Risk Assessment for Electric Vehicle Charging Pile Based on Value at Risk
作者：冯昊, 孙秋洁, 杨云露, 叶玲节, 劳咏昶, 周竹君, 张沛, 冯占凯,
关键词：充电桩, 全生命周期, 投资效益模型, 风险价值, 风险评估,
发表日期：2020-10-12
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