计及风电与光伏并网的电力系统运行风险评估
摘要：为了对新能源并网系统进行更合理的规划建设，提高其运行安全性，提出计及风电与光伏并网的电力系统运行风险评估模型。在包含风光出力不确定性、负荷波动、线路和发电机实时状态的基础上，考虑风光联合出力及天气对线路停运率的影响，以便更准确地进行风险评估。在计及电压越限、电压崩溃、线路有功功率越限、系统失负荷的传统风险指标体系基础上，增加了弃风弃光和稳态频率越限风险指标，更全面地考量风险来源。引入涵盖上述指标的综合风险指标，结合层次分析法与熵权法计算各个指标权重，所得结果更客观。采用非序贯蒙特卡洛法抽取系统状态进行风险评估，以IEEE-14节点系统为例，定性分析了新能源接入位置和风光联合出力对系统运行风险的影响，验证所提出模型和方法，为今后以风、光为代表的新能源并网系统运行风险评估提供参考。
Abstract:To make more rational planning and construction of grid-connected new energy system and improve its operational security, an operational risk assessment model of power system, in which the grid-connected wind and photovoltaic (PV) power stations were taken into account, was proposed. On the basis of taking the uncertainty of wind and PV power output, load fluctuation and the real-time status of transmission lines and generators into account, the joint wind and PV power output and the affection of the weather on the outage rate of transmission line were considered to perform the risk assessment more exactly. On the basis of traditional risk index system, where the out-of-limit of voltages, the voltage collapse, the out-of-limit t of active power of transmission lines were taken into account, the sources of risk were more comprehensively considered. Leading in the composite risk indices covering above mentioned indices and combining with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method, the weight of each index was respectively calculated, thus the obtained results were more objective. Utilizing non-sequential Monte Carlo method the system state was extracted to perform risk assessment. Taking IEEE-14 bus system for example, the influences of the grid-connecting positions of new energy power generations to power grid and the influence of joint power output of wind and PV power generation on power system operational risks are qualitatively analyzed to verify the proposed model and method. The simulation results could be referenced for the risk assessment of grid-connected new energy system represented by wind and PV power generation.
标题：计及风电与光伏并网的电力系统运行风险评估
英文标题：Operational Risk Assessment of Power System Considering Wind Power and Photovoltaic Grid Connection
作者：商皓钰, 刘天琪, 卜涛, 何川, 印月, 丁理杰,
关键词：电力系统, 风电并网, 光伏并网, Copula函数, 风险指标, 蒙特卡洛法, 运行风险评估,
发表日期：2020-07-30
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