基于控制变量法的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估
摘要：针对蒙特卡洛方法抽样容量大、效率低的问题,考虑大型风电场单机容量小、机组数多的特点,提出控制变量法抽样,以实现含风电场的发电系统可靠性评估的快速收敛。本文以常规机组的可靠性指标为控制变量,用解析法计算常规机组的可靠性指标,依次对常规机组和风电机组循环抽样。以IEEE RTS79标准测试系统为算例,对所提算法验证并与常规蒙特卡洛法、等分散抽样法对比,对影响系统抽样效率的因素进行分析。结果表明该方法能大幅减小抽样次数,提高抽样效率,同时保证系统精度。
Abstract:For the problem of great sampling number and low efficiency of Monte Carlo method, the sampling issue is solved by using control variate method, which has fast convergence feature when evaluating reliability of power system with large scale wind farm by considering such characteristics as small unit capacity and large unit number of large wind farm. In this paper, the reliability index of conventional units is taken as control variable, the analytical method is used to calculate their reliability index, and sampling of conventional units and wind turbine units is carried out successively and circularly. By taking the IEEE RTS79 test system as example, the proposed algorithm is verified and is compared with the common Monte Carlo method and the average and scattered sampling method, and the factors that affect sampling efficiency are analyzed. The simulation results show that the proposed method can largely reduce the number of sampling and improve sampling efficiency under certain precision.
标题：基于控制变量法的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估
英文标题：Reliability Evaluation on Generation Systems Integrated with Wind Farms Based on Control Variate Method
作者：邱轩宇, 余 涛, 王国平, 傅森木, 刘前进,
关键词：控制变量, 风电场, 可靠性, 蒙特卡洛法, 减小方差, 抽样效率,
发表日期：2016-04-14
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