基于Copula函数的风电场风速建模分析
摘要：韭菜坪风电场为贵州省的一个大型山区风电场,风电场内各机组的风速具有一定相关性。本文采用多元正态Copula函数及秩相关矩阵度量的方法来量化分析该风电场内风速的相关性,以建立更能反映该风电场特性的风速模型。多元正态Copula函数能有效地将威布尔分布的风速序列、风速累积概率分布序列及标准正态分布序列连接起来,实现相关风速变量的转换及建模预测。该方法为今后分析韭菜坪风电场风速特性对该地区电网安全稳定性的影响提供一定的技术支持,也可为山区及大型风电场规划选址提供参考。
Abstract:Jiucaiping wind farm of Guizhou province locates in a large mountainous area, and the wind speed of each wind turbine in wind farm is always correlative. In this paper, multivariate normal Copula function and rank correlation matrix are used to quantify the coherence of wind speed in the wind farm so as to build the wind speed model which can reflect the wind speed characteristics of the wind farm. The Weibull wind speed distribution, cumulative distribution function of wind speed and multivariate normal distribution sequences can be joined by multivariate normal Copula function effectively, which realizes the transform and modeling prediction of relative wind speed. Furthermore it can provide certain technical support for analyzing the influence of wind speed of Jiucaiping wind farm on the stability of power grid security in this region. It also can provide some references to the planning and development of wind farms in the mountainous area and large wind farms as well.
标题：基于Copula函数的风电场风速建模分析
英文标题：Modelling Analysis on Wind Speed of Farm Based on Copula Function
作者：刘文霞, 何向刚, 钟以林, 李雪凌,
关键词：Copula函数, 风速相关性, 秩相关, 概率密度,
发表日期：2016-04-14
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