考虑空间运动特性的规模化电动汽车接入电网负荷预测模型
摘要：规模化电动汽车的接入将会对电网负荷造成较大影响,为采取有效的应对策略,需对其充电负荷进行预测。本文从电动汽车运动的角度出发,结合改进的停车需求模型,建立了基于运动特性的电动汽车空间负荷预测模型。从汽车类型、起始充电时间、电池容量及充电功率等方面入手,分析充电负荷的影响因素。采用蒙特卡罗法,仿真规模化电动汽车在不同时间、不同区域的充电行为。以北京市为例,对其2030年日负荷曲线进行了预测,结果表明:规模化电动汽车负荷融入电网会给电网负荷带来大幅度提升,峰谷差明显增大,需对电网进行合理的规划并对电动汽车充电负荷进行合理分配。
Abstract:The large-scale integration of electric vehicles will result in a great impact on the load of power grid. One effective countermeasure is to predict charging load. From the perspective of the electric vehicle motion, by combing with improved parking demand model, a spatial load forecast model of charging demand for large-scale electric vehicles is built based on their motion characteristics. The factors that affect the charging load demands are analyzed from such aspects as car types, start charging time, battery capacity, charging power and so on. Then the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate charging behavior of large-scale electric vehicles in different times and regions. Taking Beijing power grid as an example, the daily load curve in 2030 is predicted. The results show that the accessing of large-scale electric vehicles to power grid will cause a great increase of the load, enlarge the difference between peak and valley load. So a rational planning for power grid and the reasonable allocation of charging load for electric vehicle is needed.
标题：考虑空间运动特性的规模化电动汽车接入电网负荷预测模型
英文标题：The Load Forecast Model for Power Grid with the Accessing of Large\|scale Electric Vehicles by Considering Spatial Motion Characteristics
作者：刘青, 戚中译,
关键词：电动汽车, 负荷预测, 规模化, 空间运动特性, 蒙特卡罗法,
发表日期：2015-02-09
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