考虑流动相关性的风电场机组分组功率预测方法
摘要：风电固有的随机波动性对电力系统的安全稳定运行产生不利影响。风电场功率预测是缓解该问题的重要途径,但预测精度及计算效率制约其在电力系统运行中的应用效果。针对上述问题,提出一种基于流动相关性的风电场机组分组方法并运用于风电场功率预测中。针对传统大地平面坐标无法体现流动信息的缺陷定义了可以体现风电场流动特性的坐标体系——风电场主风向坐标系,以简单而直观的方式将流动特性与风电场机组组合方法、风电预测技术相结合。以中国西北某风电场为例,采用GABP预测模型进行验证,结果证明该方法有效利用了风电场流动相关性对风电场机组进行分组,在精度和效率之间寻求平衡,为电力系统和风电场经济运行提供保障。
Abstract:The inherent stochastic volatility of wind power affects operation stability and security of the electric power system. Wind power forecasting is one of above solution, and the forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency affect its application in power system. Therefore, grouping method for wind turbines is presented by considering flow correlation and is applied in wind power forecasting in this paper. Because the traditional earth plane coordinates could not reflect the flow information, a new coordinate system, wind farm prevailing wind coordinate system, is defined to reflect the flow characteristic of a particular wind farm. This coordinate facilitates the combination of flow characteristic with the wind turbines grouping method and wind power forecasting technique. Taking a wind farm in northwest of China as example, the proposed method is validated using GA-BP forecasting model, and the results show that the proposed method can make good use of the characteristics of flow correlation in a wind farm to group wind turbines, and balance the forecasting accuracy and which guarantees the economic operation of power system and wind farm.
标题：考虑流动相关性的风电场机组分组功率预测方法
英文标题：Power Prediction Method for Grouping Wind Turbine Generations by Considering Flow Correlation
作者：阎洁, 刘永前, 韩爽, 王一妹, 张晋华, 朱戎,
关键词：机组分组, 风电场主风向坐标, 流动相关, 风电预测,
发表日期：2015-02-09
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