消纳大规模风电的备用容量在线滚动决策与模型
摘要：针对日内最新预测值与日前发电计划存在较大偏差的问题,考虑到风电预测精度具有随时间尺度逐级提高的特性,提出了能有效消纳风电的基于发电偏差优化的备用容量在线滚动修正策略,并建立了相应的优化调度模型。首先将正态分布与拉普拉斯分布联合来拟合风电预测偏差,在此基础上采用基于置信度的方法确定某时段风电出力极值,随后利用随机生产模拟求取该时段系统的最大备用容量即为该时段的发电偏差约束的限制值。最后,利用发电偏差与限值的比较,利用改进的粒子群算法对模型进行求解。某省电网实际算例仿真结果验证了所提策略和模型的有效性。
Abstract:Because there is a big deviation between the newest intra-day predicted values and day-ahead generation schedule, by considering the characteristics that the predicting accuracy of wind power can be increased by the level with different time scales, an online rolling dispatch strategy for spinning reserve based on power deviation optimization is proposed for accommodating large-scale wind power effectively, and a mathematic model for online rolling dispatch is also built. Firstly, the combination of normal distribution with Laplace distribution is taken to simulate the forecasting error for probability distribution of wind power, then the top and bottom limitation of wind power is determined based on confidence level. Therefore, stochastic simulation is taken to get the maximum spare capacity as the limit value of power deviationconstrains. In the end, by comparing the power deviation with the limit value, the model is solved by improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The simulation results of a real provincial power grid system verify the effectiveness of proposed strategy and model.
标题：消纳大规模风电的备用容量在线滚动决策与模型
英文标题：An Online Rolling Dispatch Method and Model of Spinning Reserve for Accommodating Large\|scale Wind Power
作者：杨娜娜, 张建成, 顾志东,
关键词：消纳风电, 风电预测偏差, 发电偏差, 备用容量优化, 滚动调度, 随机生产模拟,
发表日期：2015-02-09
- 文件大小:
- 966.92 KB
- 下载次数:
- 60
-
高速下载
|
|
