基于CFD流场预计算的风电功率预测误差分布研究
摘要：大规模风电并网会对电力系统的安全和经济运行带来不利影响,因此进行风电功率预测具有重要意义。基于CFD流场预计算的风电功率预测方法巧妙地解决了预测效率与精度间的矛盾,具有较好的工程实用性。为进一步改进基于CFD流场预计算的功率预测方法,将其应用于某一风电场进行了为期一年的功率预测,并对预测结果的误差分布进行研究。结果表明:预测方法精度较高,能够较为准确地预测风电场的各种出力方式,满足应用要求;误差频率分布随季节变化,预测功率存在横、纵向误差,不同的来流风速、风向对应不同的预测误差;预测过程应进行非均匀的风况离散,从而实现对预测方法的高效合理利用。
Abstract:The integration of large scale wind power into grid will pose a threat to power system operation in terms of security and economy, so it is necessary to predict wind power. The wind power prediction approach based on CFD pre-calculated flow fields solves the contradiction between forecasting precision and efficiency skillfully, which has high engineering practicability. In order to further improve the wind power prediction method based on CFD pre-calculated flow fields, a one-year wind power is predicted in an actual wind farm, and the error distributions of predicted results are studied. The forecasting results show that the prediction approach has high accuracy and can well predict various ways of power generation, which meets the application requirements of wind power prediction. The error frequency distributions change with seasons, and forecasting power has some transverse or longitudinal errors. In addition, different wind speed and direction sectors are correspond to different forecasting errors. The inhomogeneous wind conditions discrete methods can be adopted to predict the wind power, and then the efficient and reasonable application of the prediction approach can be realized.
标题：基于CFD流场预计算的风电功率预测误差分布研究
英文标题：Research on Error Distributions of Wind Power Prediction Based on CFD Pre-calculated Flow Fields
作者：刘永前, 王一妹, 韩爽, 李莉,
关键词：风电场, 功率预测, 流场预计算, 误差分布, 风况离散,
发表日期：2014-10-09
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