全国性碳交易市场对电力行业的潜在影响——基于多Agent模型
摘要：建立全国性碳排放交易机制之前,需要设计合理的碳排放交易机制,尤其是初始碳配额分配。采用基于多Agent方法,结合目前使用广泛的统一定价拍卖方式研究初始配额分配中不同的拍卖比例对电力价格、碳价格、碳排放量和发电能源结构的影响。本文还进一步对统一定价拍卖方法和免费分配方法进行了对比。模拟仿真结果表明:随着拍卖比例的增加,电价小幅上涨。同时高比例的拍卖将导致碳价降低、碳排放减少。在发电电源结构中,清洁能源方面将获得快速发展。而且,拍卖方法比免费分配方法在减排方面更加激进,随着拍卖比例提高,拍卖方法对电力行业的影响更加明显。基于以上结果,本文对碳排放交易市场中的拍卖比例提出政策建议。
Abstract:Before the formal implementation of GET trading mechanism, its reasonable design, especially the carbon allowance allocation, is necessary. In this paper, the potential impacts of different auction proportions for initial allowance allocation on electricity price, carbon price, carbon emissions and power source structure are analyzed by combining current widely applied uniform pricing auction mode based on multi-agent method. In addition, the difference between uniform pricing auction method and free allocation method is compared. The simulation results show that electricity price rise slightly with the increasing of auction proportion, and high-proportion auction will reduce carbon price and carbon emission. In terms of power source structure, clean power will develop faster and faster, auction method has more superiority on emission reduction than free-allocation method, and its effects on power generation sector are more obvious with the increasing of auction proportion. Based on above result, the appropriate auction proportions in the process of CET are suggested in this paper.
标题：全国性碳交易市场对电力行业的潜在影响——基于多Agent模型
英文标题：Potential Effects of Carbon Emissions Trading on China Power Generation Sector Based on Multi-agent Model
作者：蒋泽辉, 赵 涛, 王 娟, 王 悦,
关键词：碳排放交易, 碳配额分配, 电力市场, 多Agent仿真模型, 拍卖,
发表日期：2017-08-09
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