含间歇性能源的电网供电能力评估
摘要：在传统供电能力评估模型基础上,提出了基于全概率理论的供电能力概率分析模型,并以风电为例分析间歇性能源渗透率和波动性对供电能力的影响。首先介绍概率潮流算法和系统各元件的概率模型,选取半不变量法和Gram-Charlier 级数展开式求取各支路潮流的概率分布;综合考虑网架结构的不确定性,提出了以静态供电能力为基础的全概率评估方法。其次,以IEEE14节点进行算例分析,在考虑N1故障约束条件下,通过确定性潮流和不同风电渗透率的概率潮流结果对比,表明间歇性能源的渗透率和波动性对电网供电能力有显著影响。最后,与蒙特卡罗模拟法进行比较,验证评估方法的快速性与准确性。
Abstract:In this paper, on the basis of the traditional power supply capability evaluation model, probability analysis model of power supply capacity is proposed based on the full probability theory, and the impacts of volatility and permeability of intermittent power on power supply capacity is analyzed by taking wind power as example. Firstly, probability power flow algorithm and system probability model of each component are introduced, and semi-invariant method and Gram-Charlier series expansions are used to calculate the probability distribution of current in each branch. By comprehensive considering the uncertainty of the system structure, full probability evaluation method is put forward based on static power supply ability. Secondly, through taking IEEE14 buses system as example, considering the N-1 fault constraint conditions, it shows that volatility and permeability of the intermittent energy has a significant influence on the power supply ability by comparing the deterministic power flow with the probability power flow for system with different wind power penetration. Finally, the quickness and accuracy of evaluation method are verified in comparison with monte-carlo simulation.
标题：含间歇性能源的电网供电能力评估
英文标题：Evaluation on Power Supply Capability of Power Grid with Intermittent Sources
作者：李雨荣, 赵冬梅, 吕勃翰,
关键词：间歇性能源, 概率潮流, 全概率理论, 供电能力,
发表日期：2017-04-19
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