光伏发电系统可靠性分析的贝叶斯网络模型
摘要:为了对光伏系统的可靠性进行定量分析，提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的光伏系统可靠性评估模型。该模型由光伏系统电气架构图建立故障树，并将其映射成贝叶斯网络，利用概率论基本公式和桶排除法，以实际光伏电站的各部件失效概率为先验概率，计算系统的整体可靠性，进行诊断推理和因果推理，识别系统的薄弱环节，给出系统内部各事件故障概率的影响关系。模型分析表明了运用贝叶斯网络进行光伏系统可靠性评估的有效性和优越性。
Abstract：In order to make a quantitative analysis on the reliability of photovoltaic(PV) system, a new model of reliability assessment is presented based on Bayesian network(BN). In the model, a fault tree (FT) is built based on electrical architecture diagram of a generic PV system firstly, and then it is mapped into a BN. By using the basic formula in the field of probability theory and the method of bucket elimination, considering the failure probability of each component in an actual photovoltaic power plant as the prior probability, the reliability of the overall system can be calculated. Moreover, by performing diagnostic reasoning and causal reasoning, weak links in the system can be easily identified, and the effects among the failure probabilities of events in the system can be provided conveniently. The framework based on the BN is intuitive and effective which is easy to be applied into the reliability assessment of PV system. The model provides a basis for more advanced and useful analyses in fault diagnosis of PV system. The model indicates that the Bayesian network for the reliability evaluation of PV power station is effective and superior.
标题：光伏发电系统可靠性分析的贝叶斯网络模型
title:Bayesian Network Model for Photovoltaic Power Plant Reliability Analysis
作者：崔家文, 张春茂, 张宏彪, 田伟, 张洋
authors:CUI Jiawen, ZHANG Chunmao , ZHANG Hongbiao , TIAN Wei, ZHANG Yang
关键词：光伏系统可靠性,贝叶斯网络,故障树,桶排除法,可靠性评估,
keywords:PV system reliability,Bayesian network,fault tree,bucket elimination,reliability assessment,
发表日期：2016-08-25
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