基于非序贯蒙特卡洛法的特高压直流外送配套电源可靠性评估
摘要:为了评估直流外送通道配套电源可靠性，结合特高压直流外送通道的运行情况，建立了含风力、光伏的新能源发电系统失效概率计算模型，采用非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法，对直流外送通道配套电源进行可靠性评估。定义配套电源冗余容量比和出力偏移度2个指标进一步衡量直流外送通道配套电源的可靠性。通过对某地特高压直流外送系统配套电源的可靠性分析，计算出了几种不同情景下配套电源可靠性的变化结果。算例结果表明，本方法对于直流外送系统配套电源可靠性评估具有一定的适用性。
Abstract：In order to evaluate the power reliability of the DC transmission channel, combined with the operation of the UHV DC transmission channel, the failure probability calculation model of the new energy power generation system including wind power and photovoltaic power generation was established, and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation was adopted. A method for evaluating the power reliability of a DC transmission channel. Defining two indicators, namely the redundant capacity ratio and output deviation of the auxiliary power supply, can further measure the reliability of the auxiliary power supply of the DC transmission channel. Through the analysis of the reliability of the supporting power supply of the UHV DC transmission system in a certain area, the variation results of the supporting power supply reliability under several different conditions are calculated. The result of the calculation example shows that the method has certain applicability for the reliability evaluation of the supporting power supply of the DC transmission system.
标题：基于非序贯蒙特卡洛法的特高压直流外送配套电源可靠性评估
title:Reliability Evaluation of UHV DC Power Supply Using Nonsequential Monte Carlo Method
作者：胡家华,李东辉
authors:HU Jiahua,LI Donghui
关键词：直流外送系统,配套电源,新能源系统,非序贯蒙特卡洛法,可靠性评估,
keywords:DC transmission system,auxiliary power supply,renewable energy system,nonsequential Monte Carlo method,reliability evaluation,
发表日期：2020-11-25
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