基于季风和大气压分布的我国风电功率预测研究
摘要:为提高我国超短期和短期风电功率预测的准确性和可靠性，首先回顾我国冬季风和夏季风的基本变化性质。我国东南沿海处在冬季风和夏季风的主要路径上，每年有超过7个月的时间具有超过2 000 km空间距离和超过20 h延迟时间的风速空间相关性。引起冬季风的蒙古高压，还控制着我国北部和西部的风能资源丰富区。尽管总体上我国天气预报难度超过欧美，但冬季风、夏季风及蒙古高压引起的空间相关性，使得这些区域风速等预报的精度具有明显提高的潜力，特别是台湾海峡区域具有高精度的超短期风速预报潜力。再采用力学中的刚体定轴转动定律等进行风速－功率曲线的精确求解，可望在我国东南沿海和北部的风能资源丰富区，通过空间相关性获得高性能的超短期、短期风电功率预测效果。
Abstract：In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of China's ultra-short-term and short-term wind power prediction, the elementary characteristics of winter monsoon and summer monsoon in China are reviewed. China's southeast coastal area locates on the main path of the winter monsoon and the summer monsoon, where the wind speed spatial correlation exceeds 2000 km and lag time exceeds 20 h for more than 7 months every year. The Siberian High not only causes the winter monsoon, but also dominates wind energy resource-rich areas in north and west of China. Although the overall weather forecast in China is more difficult than that in Europe and the United States, the winter monsoon, the summer monsoon and the Siberian High make it possible potentially to improve wind speed prediction obviously in these areas by spatial correlation. In particular, the Taiwan Strait region has the obvious potential of high-precision ultra-short-term wind speed prediction. Then to exactly solve wind speed-power curve precisely by the law of rotation of rigid body round a fixed axis, it is expected to obtain the high-performance ultra-short-term and short-term wind power prediction in the wind energy resource-rich areas in north and west of China by spatial correlation.
标题：基于季风和大气压分布的我国风电功率预测研究
title:Survey on China Wind Power Prediction Based on Monsoons and Atmospheric Pressure Distribution
作者：杨正瓴,刘仍祥,李真真
authors:YANG Zhengling,LIU Rengxiang,LI Zhenzhen
关键词：风电功率预测,短期,超短期,季风,风速－功率曲线,空间相关性,
keywords:wind power prediction,short term,ultra short term,monsoon,wind speed-power curve,spatial correlation,
发表日期：2018-06-13
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