我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型

我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型
摘要：为科学制定我国中长期新能源发展规划，需要开展新能源开发路线图研究。根据我国能源发展战略和新能源发展的特点，建立了开发总量规模测算、开发时序编制、开发布局优化相应的分析模型，提出了涵盖新能源资源潜力评估、开发总量规模、开发时序、开发布局的一整套开发路线图分析方法，并实证分析了2030/2050年我国风电、光伏发电、光热发电的开发总量、时序和布局。研究结果表明：未来我国新能源仍将加快大规模发展，2030年后新能源将从替代能源向主导电源转变，风电布局将主要集中在“三北”地区，太阳能发电呈现出集中式开发和分布式利用相结合的特点。

Abstract:Studying on new energy developing roadmap helps to provide the important reference for the formulation of medium and long-term development plan of new energy in China. This paper put forward a set of analysis methods and models of development roadmap involving resources evaluations, total capacity, developing sequences and layout according to energy development strategy and characteristics of new energy development in China. The wind, photovoltaic and photothermal power generation developing capacity sequences and layout in 2030 and 2050 were also studied. The results show that there will be a rapid speed for China's new energy development, pushing the new energy to become the dominated power after 2030. Wind power will be concentered in "Three North" areas, while the solar power presents a combination of centralized development and distributed utilization.

标题：我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型
title:Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China

作者：谢国辉, 李娜娜, 元博
authors:Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN

关键词：新能源,开发路线图,开发总量,开发时序,
keywords:new energy,developing road map,developing capacity,developing sequence,

发表日期：2020-12-31

2025-1-21 00:20 上传 我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型.pdf

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