面向促进新能源消纳的源网荷贡献度分解算法
摘要：解决我国新能源消纳矛盾，需要从电源、电网、负荷等环节因素入手，综合施策、系统优化，有效提升新能源消纳能力，但因侧重研究源网荷因素共同作用效果，缺乏对促进新能源消纳时每种因素的实际贡献度分析。为此，从规划角度，基于电力系统生产模拟构建不同的源网荷因素发展情景，分别根据灵敏度法和Shapley值法对各因素在促进新能源消纳能力中的贡献度进行分解，并结合算例充分比较两种方法差异。分析结果表明，灵敏度法针对特定情景判断某因素的消纳贡献度，适合针对既定发展阶段给出措施清单；Shapley值法基于全部发展情景对各因素贡献度进行综合加权，更适合考察从现状到规划水平年的发展全过程。
Abstract:Continuous optimization of source, grid and load factors is needed to solve the renewable energy curtailment problem. This article focuse d on the decomposition algorithm of contribution to renewable energy accommodation under the combined effect of source-grid-load. From the point of view of the planning, development scenarios were established under different source-grid-load factors, based on production simulation. Source-grid-load contributions to renewable energy accommodation were calculated by sensitivity analysis method and Shapley value method, respectively. The sensitivity analysis calculate contribution by judgment factors according to a specific scenario. It is suitable to give a list of measures for an established stage of development. The Shapley value method is a comprehensive weighting for the contribution of all development scenarios. It is more suitable for examining the whole process of development from the present situation to the level of planning.
标题：面向促进新能源消纳的源网荷贡献度分解算法
title:Decomposition Algorithm of Source-grid-load Contribution for Promoting Renewable Energy Accommodation
作者：弭辙,张晋芳,刘俊,赵秋莉,张富强
authors:Zhe MI,Jinfang ZHANG,Jun LIU,Qiuli ZHAO,Fuqiang ZHANG
关键词：生产模拟,新能源消纳,贡献度,Shapley值法,
keywords:production simulation,renewable energy accommodation,contribution rate,Shapley value method,
发表日期：2019-12-30
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