不同碳达峰时点选择下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响--以广东省为例
摘要：摘要中国提出2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标将对全社会经济发展、能源消费带来深刻的变革。通过构建广东省气候-经济-环境-健康综合评估模型（ICEEH-GD）,设计了如期达峰（2030年达峰）和率先达峰（2025年达峰）两个情景,研究不同碳达峰时点下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响。结果表明,率先达峰情景促进全社会投资从电力、水泥、油品开采、焦炭、钢铁等低增加值高碳排放部门转向服务业、电子信息、机械制造、建筑业、化工业等高增加值低碳排放部门,投资量总计转移了819亿元,带动相关部门的增加值增长135亿元。率先达峰情景强化对电力、水泥、钢铁、陶瓷等高碳排放行业的限制,在2030年全社会就业岗位比如期达峰情景增加82 000人,但全省国内生产总值（GDP）比如期达峰情景减少424亿元,占届时全省GDP总量的0.242%。到2030年,率先达峰情景比如期达峰情景降低CO2排放7 610万t和节约能源消费2 535万t标准煤,其中碳减排和节能贡献部门主要来自电力、水泥、钢铁、石油开采、陶瓷行业,分别占全社会碳减排量和节能量的65.0%和74.3%。从投资与增加值、就业、碳排放的关系来看,建议大力发展电子信息、机械制造业这些单位投资增加值高、就业较高且单位投资碳排放较低的部门;鼓励对电力、水泥、钢铁、陶瓷单位投资增加值较低且单位投资碳排放较高的部门进行绿色化改造和行业提质增效。
Abstract:：China's goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 will bring profound changes to the economic development and energy consumption of the whole society. In this paper, the integrated assessment model of climate, economic, environment and health of Guangdong province (ICEEH-GD) was constructed, and two scenarios of reaching the peak on schedule (reaching the carbon peak in 2030, RCP30) and reaching the peak ahead (reaching the carbon peak in 2025, RCP25) were designed to study the change of investment structure, economic and social impact at different carbon peak time. The results showed that, under RCP25 scenario, the whole society's investment was promoted from low value-added and high carbon emission sectors such as power, cement, oil exploitation, coke and steel to high value-added and low carbon emission sectors such as service, electronic information, machinery manufacturing, construction industry and chemical industry. The total amount of investment shifted by 81.9 billion yuan, drove the value-added of relevant departments increased by 13.5 billion yuan. The restrictions on high carbon emission industries such as electric power, cement, steel and ceramics were strengthened. In 2030, the total employment of the whole society in RCP25 scenario would increase by 82 000 person compared with that in RCP30 scenario, while the gross national product (GDP) of Guangdong province would decrease by 42.4 billion yuan compared with that in RCP30 scenario, accounting for 0.242% of the total GDP. By 2030, the RCP25 scenario would reduce CO2 emissions by 76.1 million tons and save energy consumption by 25.35 million tons of standard coal compared with the RCP30 scenario. The carbon emission reduction and energy saving contribution sectors would be mainly from the power, cement, steel, oil exploitation and ceramics, accounting for 65.0% and 74.3% of the total social carbon emission reduction and energy saving respectively. From the relationship among investment, added value, employment and carbon emissions, it was suggested that electronic information and machinery manufacturing sectors should be developed, which have high value-added, high employment and low carbon emission per investment. Then the power, cement, steel and ceramics sectors should be encouraged to carry out green transition and improve quality and efficiency, which have low added value and high carbon emission per investment.
中文标题：不同碳达峰时点选择下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响——以广东省为例
英文标题：Investment Structure Change and Economic and Social Impact under Different Carbon Peak Time: A Case Study of Guangdong Province
发表时间：2022-02-22
作者：
任松彦, 汪鹏, 林泽伟, 赵黛青
作者简介：
任松彦（1989-）,男,博士研究生,助理研究员,主要从事能源经济环境综合模型研究。汪 鹏（1981-）,男,博士,研究员,主要从事能源经济环境综合模型与智慧低碳园研究。
关键词：可计算一般均衡,广东,碳达峰,投资结构,经济影响,
Key words：CGE,Guangdong,carbon peak,investment structure,economic impact,
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