以破坏概率为目标的岩质边坡平面滑动破坏反分析
摘要:把可靠性理论和反分析方法相结合，对岩质边坡平面滑动破坏进行了反分析，讨论了分别以稳定系数和破坏概率为目标的反算方法，阐述了平面滑动破坏反分析的计算过程，根据无后缘张裂缝的岩质边坡平面滑动极限状态函数，运用Monte Carlo方法对某核电工程基坑边坡平面滑动破坏进行了反分析。指出了基于稳定系数的常规定值反分析中的不足，讨论了变异系数、截尾位置、相关系数对计算结果的影响。认为抗剪强度指标的变异系数和相关系数对反算结果影响不大，截尾位置按照“3σ”原则兼顾变异系数经验范围的设置方法可以满足要求。
Abstract:By combining reliability theory with back analysis method,the plane sliding failure of rock slope was analyzed.The back calculation method aiming at stability coefficient and failure probability was discussed,and the calculation process of the plane sliding failure was expounded.According to the limit state function of plane sliding of rock slope with no posterior edge tension crack,Monte Carlo method was used to analyze the plane sliding failure of foundation pit slope in a nuclear power project.The shortcomings in the analysis of the normal values based on the stability coefficient was pointed out,and the influence of the variable coefficient,the truncation position,and the correlation coefficient on the calculation results was discussed.It is believed that the variation coefficient and correlation coefficient of the shear strength index have little effect on the back calculation results,and the truncation position could meet the requirements in accordance with the “3σ” principle and the setting method of the empirical range of the variation coefficient.
中文标题：
以破坏概率为目标的岩质边坡平面滑动破坏反分析
Back Analysis of Plane Sliding Failure of Rock Slope Aiming at Failure Probability
作者：
孙立川,赵在立,陈立璞
Sun Lichuan,Zhao Zaili,Chen Lipu
作者简介:孙立川,男,1968年生,岩土工程硕士,1991年毕业于同济大学院岩土工程系水文地质与工程地质专业,教授级高级工程师,主要从事核电及民用岩土工程勘察、设计、施工的工作。E-mail:hsky189@126.com
通讯地址：
河北中核岩土工程有限责任公司, 河北石家庄 050021
NuclearIndustryofChinaGeotechnicalEngineeringCo.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang050021,Hebei,China
中图分类号:P642.22
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-2993.2020.01.007
出版物：岩土工程技术
收稿日期:2019-04-16
网络出版日期:2021-07-10
关键词:反分析,可靠性,稳定系数,破坏概率,平面滑动破坏,Monte Carlo方法,极限状态函数
Key words:back analysis,reliability,stability factor,failure probability,plane sliding failure,Monte Carlo method,limit state function
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