文档名：组合八邻域跟踪算法监测全闪电雷暴活动时空演变过程及特征
摘要：雷暴是威胁电力系统安全可靠运行的重要因素,监测雷暴活动可以为电力系统雷电防护提供雷暴活动路径及预警信息.该文提出一种组合八邻域雷暴跟踪算法及跟踪结果评估指标,并采用该算法对珠三角地区九次雷暴活动进行时空演变特征分析和定量评估.结果表明,九个雷暴活动共识别出大于18min的轨迹1490条,其中简单轨迹和含分裂合并过程的复杂轨迹各占一半.雷暴活动平均速度为51.4km/h,速度中值为43.0km/h,简单轨迹平均速度比复杂轨迹慢.评估指标命中率(POD)、虚假警报率(FAR)和临界成功指数(CSI)分别为64.3%、40.4%和42.7%,轨迹时长中值、平均轨迹偏差、非连贯性和平均合并分裂次数分别为24min、2.80km、0.0327s-1和2.51次.该方法可以很好地描述雷暴活动时空演变过程和评估跟踪结果,为雷电预警提供了有效手段.
Abstract：Lightningisthemaincauseofdamagestopowersystems.Theplanningofpowersystemtransmissioncorridorsandlinelightningprotectionaremainlybasedonthelightningdensityandthedistributionoflightningdays.Measuressuchasreducingthegroundingresistanceoftowersandinstallinglightningarrestersaretakentoimprovetheinsulationleveloftransmissionlines.Thetraditionallightningdensityandthenumberofthunderstormdaysarenotabletopresentthetemporalandspatialevolutioncharacteristicsofthunderstormactivities.Monitoringthemovementoflightningactivitycanprovidetrackandwarninginformationforlightningprotectionofequipment.Thispaperpresentsacombinatorialeight-connectivitytrackingmethodandevaluationindexesbasedontotallightningdata,whichisappliedtoanalyzethetemporalandspatialevolutionoflightningactivitiesinGuangzhou.Thetrackingmethodbasedontotallightningdataisdividedintotwosteps:clusteridentificationandclustertracking.Atthestepofidentification,thegridmethodisusedtopre-processthetotallightningeventsandthelightningregion(112°E～115°E,22°N～25°N)isgriddedinto0.01°×0.01°gridboxes(longitude×latitude).Totallightningeventsaredistributedintogridcellsaccordingtotheirgeographicalcoordinatestoformatotallightningdensitymapinasingletimeinterval.First,theelectricallyactiveregionisidentifiedbythe8-connectivitymethodandformprimarylightningclusters.Accordingtothesizeofthetransmissionlinespan,primarylightningclustersaremergedintofinallightningclusterswithinthedistanceoftwogridcells.Atthestepoftracking,thealgorithmtakesinfluencingfactorsintoaccounttomatchclustersbetweentwosuccessivetimeintervals,includinghistoryvelocity,lightningclusterareaandsplit-mergeprocesses.Inaddition,theevaluationindexescontaintheskillscoresoftheprobabilityofdetection(POD),falsealarmratio(FAR),andcriticalsuccessindex(CSI)fromthecontingencytableapproach,thetrackcharacteristicsoftrackduration,tracklinearity,trackcontinuityandtrackcomplexitytoquantitativelyevaluatetheperformanceoftrackingmethod.Thetrackingmethodandevaluationareusedtoanalyzetheninethunderstormsandcase1arepresentedasanexample.Thecase1has313trackslongerthan18min,andtracksmoveinthenortheastdirection,withameanspeedof51.4km/handamedianspeedof43.0km/h.Thecentroidoflightningclustersandtemporalandspatialevolutioncharacteristicsofeachtrackarecounted.TheevaluationindexesofPOD,FARandCSIare63.3%,41.4%and43.8%,respectively,whilethemediantrackduration,meanjitteroftrack,incoherenceandaveragenumberofsplitsandmergesare24min,2.85km,0.0341s-1and2.43,respectively.Thefollowingconclusionscanbedrawnfromtheninethunderstormsbasedonthecombinatorialeight-connectivitytrackingmethodandevaluationindexes:(1)Atotalof10,894lightningclusterswereidentifiedintheninelightningactivities,withamedianareaof22km2.Itisfoundthat1490lightningclustertracksarelongerthan18min,ofwhichsimpletracksandcomplextracks(involvingsplit-tingormerging)accountforhalf,respectively.(2)Sixlightningactivitiesmoveinthenortheastdirection,therestmovenorthwest,withameanspeedof51.4km/handamedianspeedof43.0km/h.Simpletracksmoveslowerthancomplextracks.(3)POD,FARandCSIare65.6%,39.2%,46.4%,respectively,whilethemediantrackduration,meanjitteroftrack,incoherenceandaveragenumberofsplitsandmergesare24min,2.80km,0.0327s-1and2.51,respectively.Thisalgorithmcandescribethetemporalandspatialevolutionoflightningactivityandindexesareabletoevaluatethetrackingresults,whichprovidesaneffectivemethodforpredictingthunderstormmovementandlightningwarningoftransmissionlines.
作者：黄怡鋆 樊亚东 王红斌 蔡力 王建国 Author：HuangYijun FanYadong WangHongbin CaiLi WangJianguo
作者单位：雷电防护与接地技术教育部工程研究中心武汉430072;武汉大学电气与自动化学院武汉430072广州供电局有限公司广州510013
刊名：电工技术学报
Journal：TransactionsofChinaElectrotechnicalSociety
年，卷(期)：2024, 39(5)
分类号：TM863
关键词：雷暴活动 跟踪算法 评估指标 时空演变 组合八邻域
Keywords：Lightningactivity trackingmethod evaluationindex spatial-temporalevolution combinatorialeight-connectivity
机标分类号：P204TP391.41TM732
在线出版日期：2024年3月19日
基金项目：国家自然科学基金，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目组合八邻域跟踪算法监测全闪电雷暴活动时空演变过程及特征[
期刊论文] 电工技术学报--2024, 39(5)黄怡鋆 樊亚东 王红斌 蔡力 王建国雷暴是威胁电力系统安全可靠运行的重要因素,监测雷暴活动可以为电力系统雷电防护提供雷暴活动路径及预警信息.该文提出一种组合八邻域雷暴跟踪算法及跟踪结果评估指标,并采用该算法对珠三角地区九次雷暴活动进行时空演...参考文献和引证文献
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