文档摘要：宁夏光伏发电潜力巨大.近年来省域层面光伏电站选址开发存在盲目规划问题,量化评估光伏开发适宜性与发电潜力对省域能源消费结构调整具有重要意义.研究综合利用高精度气象、自然地理和经济社会数据,耦合AHP-DEMATEL-TEM综合赋权模型、GIS-MCDM光伏开发适宜性评价模型、PVsyst仿真模拟融合公式法的光伏发电潜力评估模型构建省域地面光伏开发潜力综合评估模型,对宁夏光伏开发适宜性进行空间显性评价,进而定量评估省域光伏发电潜力.结果表明:(1)综合赋权模型更适合省域地面光伏开发适宜性评价.用AHP赋权模型会高估适宜区发电潜力,使宁夏适宜区面积计算结果增加3.75％,同时低估不适宜区发电潜力,使不适宜区面积减少3.24％.(2)宁夏非常适宜区面积最大,不适宜区面积最小.西部、东部的光伏开发适宜性大于中部,南部最低.省域内非常适宜区面积为18934.5km2,占评估区域总面积的比重达36.56％.各市光伏开发适宜性从高到低为:吴忠市,中卫市,银川市,石嘴山市,固原市.(3)宁夏发电潜力巨大,且宁夏五市光伏发电潜力分布差异较大.若将宁夏省域内特别适宜区域发电潜力全部释放,年发电量将达到1.552×1012kW·h,相当于宁夏2021年电力消费量的13.4倍,且开发9.1％的特别适宜区光伏发电潜力即可覆盖省域内火电完全替换为清洁能源的需求.宁夏五市光伏发电潜力从大到小为:吴忠市,中卫市,银川市,石嘴山市,固原市.研究结果为全国其他省域光伏发电潜力评估风险控制及光伏电站选址提供科学参考和指导建议.
Abstract：Ningxiahashugepotentialforphotovoltaicpowergeneration,andinrecentyears,thereisablindplanningprobleminthesiteselectionanddevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowerstationsattheprovinciallevel,soitisofgreatsignificancetoquantitativelyevaluatethesuitabilityofphotovoltaicdevelopmentandpowergenerationpotentialfortheadjustmentofprovincialenergyconsumptionstructure.Inthisstudy,acomprehensiveevaluationmodelofprovincialgroundphotovoltaicdevelopmentpotentialisconstructedbycomprehensivelyusinghigh-precisionmeteorological,physicalgeographyandeconomicandsocialdata,coupledwiththeAHP-DEMATEL-TEMcomprehensiveweightingmodel,GIS-MCDMphotovoltaicdevelopmentsuitabilityevaluationmodel,andphotovoltaicpowerpotentialevaluationmodelofPVsystsimulationfusionformulamethod,anduseittoevaluatethespatialexplicitevaluationofthesuitabilityofphotovoltaicdevelopmentinNingxia,andthenquantitativelyevaluatetheprovincialphotovoltaicpowergenerationpotential.Theresultsshowthat:(1)Thecomprehensiveweightingmodelismoresuitableforthesuitabilityevaluationofprovincialgroundphotovoltaicdevelopment.TheAHPweightingmodeloverestimatesthepowergenerationpotentialofthesuitablearea,increasingtheareaofthesuitableareainNingxiaby3.75％,whileunderestimatingthepowergenerationpotentialoftheunsuitablearea,reducingtheareaoftheunsuitableareaby3.24％.(2)Ningxiahasthelargestsuitableareaandthesmallestunsuitablearea.Thesuitabilityofphotovoltaicdevelopmentinthewestandeastisgreaterthanthatinthecentralpartandthelowestisinthesouth,andthehighlysuitableareaintheprovinceis18934.5km2,accountingfor36.56％ofthetotalassessedarea.Thesuitabilityofphotovoltaicdevelopmentinvariouscitiesfromhightolowisasfollows:WuzhongCity,ZhongCity,YinchuanCity,ShizuishanCity,andGuyuanCity.(3)Ningxiahashugepowergenerationpotential,andthedistributionofphotovoltaicpowergenerationpotentialinthefivecitiesofNingxiaisquitedifferent.IfthepowergenerationpotentialoftheparticularlysuitableareasinNingxiaprovinceisfullyreleased,theannualpowergenerationwillreach1.552×1012kW·h,whichisequivalentto13.4timesofNingxia'selectricityconsumptionin2021,andthedevelopmentof9.1％ofthephotovoltaicpowergenerationpotentialinthespecialsuitableareascancoverthedemandforthecompletereplacementofthermalpowerwithcleanenergyintheprovince.ThepotentialforphotovoltaicpowergenerationinthefivecitiesofNingxia,fromlargetosmall,isasfollows:WuzhongCity,ZhongweiCity,YinchuanCity,ShizuishanCity,andGuyuanCity.Theresearchresultsprovidescientificreferenceandguidancefortheassessmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationpotential,riskcontrolandthelocationofphotovoltaicpowerstationsinotherprovincesacrossthecountry.
作者：周茜 周桃元Author：ZHOUQian ZHOUTaoyuan
作者单位：华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102208
刊名：电力科学与工程
Journal：ElectricPowerScienceandEngineering
年，卷(期)：2024, 40(6)
分类号：P964
关键词：综合赋权模型 新型电力系统 省域光伏发电潜力 宁夏能源转型
Keywords：comprehensiveweightingmodel newpowersystem provincialphotovoltaicpowergenerationpotential Ningxiaenergytransition
机标分类号：F224F403TM615
在线出版日期：2024年7月19日
基金项目：北京市社会科学基金资助项目省域地面光伏开发潜力综合评估模型及应用[
期刊论文] 电力科学与工程--2024, 40(6)周茜 周桃元宁夏光伏发电潜力巨大.近年来省域层面光伏电站选址开发存在盲目规划问题,量化评估光伏开发适宜性与发电潜力对省域能源消费结构调整具有重要意义.研究综合利用高精度气象、自然地理和经济社会数据,耦合AHP-DEMATEL-TEM综...参考文献和引证文献
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关键词：综合赋权模型,新型电力系统,省域光伏发电潜力,宁夏能源转型,
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