文档摘要：针对动车组车载变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测中单性能退化指标难以全面反映油纸绝缘退化过程的问题,考虑车载变压器油纸绝缘退化的个体差异性及两性能指标间的相关关系,提出了基于Copula函数的两性能指标相关退化的油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法:采用具有随机效应的维纳过程建立油纸绝缘的两性能指标相关退化模型,基于赤池信息准则(AkaikeInformationCriterion,AIC)选择拟合效果更优的Copula函数来描述两性能指标间的相关关系,采用最大似然估计法估计初始时刻的模型参数,基于序列贝叶斯更新方法在线更新退化模型中的漂移系数,以实现油纸绝缘剩余寿命的在线预测.最后以加速热老化试验下油纸绝缘的聚合度和抗拉强度的退化数据进行实例验证.结果表明,两性能指标相关退化模型比单性能指标退化模型的剩余寿命预测值与实际值之间的平均绝对误差更小,预测的准确性更高,且随着模型参数不断更新,剩余寿命的预测值与实际值间的绝对误差在不断减小,预测结果的准确性在不断提升.
Abstract：Tosolvetheproblemthatthesingleperformancedegradationindexinthepredictionofresiduallifeofoil-paperinsulationofvehicle-mountedtransformercannotfullyreflectthedegradationprocessofoil-paperinsulation,consideringtheindividualdifferenceofoil-paperinsulationdegradationofvehicle-mountedtransformerandthecorrelationofthetwoperformancecharacteristics,apredictionmethodofresiduallifeofoil-paperinsulationbasedonbivariatedependentdegradationwasproposed.Firstly,aWienermodelwithrandomeffectswasusedtodescribethedegradationprocessofoil-paperinsulation,andthedriftcoefficientinthemodelwasrandomizedtocharacterizetherandomnessandindividualdifferencesofthedegradationprocessofoil-paperinsulationperformance.BasedontheAkaikeInformationCriterion(AIC)criterion,aCopulafunctionwithabetterfittingeffectwasselectedtodescribethecorrelationbetweenamphotericenergyindicators.Thus,adegradationmodelrelatedtothezwitterionicenergyindexofoil-paperinsulationisestablished,andtheprobabilitydensityfunctionofitsremaininglifeisderived;Then,themaximumlikelihoodestimationmethodisusedtoestimatetheinitialmodelparameters.ThedriftcoefficientinthedegradationmodelisupdatedonlinebasedonthesequentialBayesianupdatemethodtoachieveonlinepredictionoftheremaininglifeofoil-paperinsulation.Finally,thedegradationdataofthedegreeofpolymerizationandtensilestrengthofoil-paperinsulationunderacceleratedthermalagingexperimentsareusedforexampleverification.Theresultsshowthattheaveragerelativeerroroftheresiduallifepredictionvalueofthedegradationmodelrelatedtothegenderperformanceindexhasalwaysbeensmallerthantheaveragerelativeerroroftheresiduallifepredictionvalueofthesingleperformanceindexdegradationmodel.Thisresultindicatesthattheresiduallifepredictionresultsofthedegradationmodelconsideringthegenderperformanceindexaremoreaccuratethanthoseofthesingleperformanceindexdegradationmodel.Withincreasingtheoperatingtime,theaveragerelativeerrorofresiduallifepredictionvaluesbetweenthedegradationmodelrelatedtogenderperformanceindicatorsandthesingleperformanceindicatordegradationmodeliscontinuouslydecreasing,indicatingthatwiththecontinuousupdatingofmodelparametersandresiduallifepredictionresults,theresiduallifepredictionresultsaremoreaccurateandthepredictionaccuracyiscontinuouslyimproving.
作者：齐金平 李鸿伟 张慧娟 刘晓宇 燕大强 Author：QIJinping LIHongwei ZHANGHuijuan LIUXiaoyu YANDaqiang
作者单位：兰州交通大学机电技术研究所,兰州730070中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司,兰州730015
刊名：安全与环境学报 ISTICPKU
Journal：JournalofSafetyandEnvironment
年，卷(期)：2024, 24(6)
分类号：X951
关键词：安全工程 牵引变压器 油纸绝缘 二元Wiener模型 Copula函数 剩余寿命预测
Keywords：safetyengineering tractiontransformer oil-paperinsulation bivariateWienermodel Copulafunction residuallifeprediction
机标分类号：O212.4TN957.71TP391.41
在线出版日期：2024年7月4日
基金项目：国家自然科学基金，中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司资助项目基于二元相关退化的动车组车载变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测[
期刊论文] 安全与环境学报--2024, 24(6)齐金平 李鸿伟 张慧娟 刘晓宇 燕大强针对动车组车载变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测中单性能退化指标难以全面反映油纸绝缘退化过程的问题,考虑车载变压器油纸绝缘退化的个体差异性及两性能指标间的相关关系,提出了基于Copula函数的两性能指标相关退化的油纸绝...参考文献和引证文献
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关键词：安全工程,牵引变压器,油纸绝缘,二元Wiener模型,Copula函数,剩余寿命预测,
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